What we expect
In plain English
Atlético Madrid are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won four of their last six. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Atlético Madrid or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?
Bawler's model rates this match: Atlético Madrid are favoured (38% win probability vs 36% for Alavés, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Alavés 1-1 Atlético Madrid (12.6% probability). Expected total goals: 2.82.
How does Bawler predict Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Alavés 36%, the draw 27% and Atlético Madrid 38%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?
BTTS: Yes (57% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.39 and away expected goals 1.43.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.82. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).