FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Alavés 1–2 Atlético MadridMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Atlético Madrid or draw at 64%. Bawler had Alavés at 36%, the draw at 27% and Atlético Madrid at 38%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Alavés win
36%
Draw
27%
Atlético Madrid win
38%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Alavés or draw
Pre-match: 62%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.