FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Atlético Madrid 2–0 Manchester UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Manchester United or draw at 68%. Bawler had Atlético Madrid at 32%, the draw at 24% and Manchester United at 43%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Atlético Madrid win
32%
Result
Draw
24%
Manchester United win
43%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.7
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.