FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Celta Vigo 2–1 AlavésMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Celta Vigo or draw at 72%. Bawler had Celta Vigo at 44%, the draw at 28% and Alavés at 28%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Celta Vigo win
44%
Result
Draw
28%
Alavés win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.1
Total 2.5
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.