FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Espanyol 0–1 Atlético MadridMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Atlético Madrid or draw at 70%. Bawler had Espanyol at 30%, the draw at 26% and Atlético Madrid at 44%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Espanyol win
30%
Draw
26%
Atlético Madrid win
44%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.6
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.