FT · Spain: La Liga · Friday, 23 October 2026
Alavés 1–1 MálagaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 23 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Alavés or draw at 82%. Bawler had Alavés at 57%, the draw at 24% and Málaga at 18%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Alavés win
57%
Draw
24%
Result
Málaga win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 0.9
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Alavés or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Alavés' 0.88 expected-goals advantage underpins an 81% forecast for Alavés or draw, suggesting the hosts' superior shot quality should secure at least a draw against Málaga."