FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Atlético MadridMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was VfB Stuttgart or draw at 67%. Bawler had VfB Stuttgart at 42%, the draw at 24% and Atlético Madrid at 33%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
VfB Stuttgart win
42%
Draw
24%
Result
Atlético Madrid win
33%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.5
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals commands an 83% forecast because Stuttgart's 1.75 xG and Atlético's 1.49 xG combine into a high-volume attacking fixture where Undav's striker role and Griezmann's creativity should generate multiple chances."