Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen prediction — Eredivisie · Sat 10 Oct · 20:00 UK

Eredivisie · Sat 10 Oct · 20:00 UK
57Ajax Amsterdam win21Draw22NEC Nijmegen win
Full time
1–1

How it finished

Ajax Amsterdam and NEC Nijmegen drew 1–1. Ajax Amsterdam had 18 shots (5 on target) to NEC Nijmegen's 8 (2), with 61% of the ball against 39%. Expected goals finished 1.8 to 1.1.

Ajax…Full-time statsNEC Nijmegen
61%Possession39%
1.8Expected goals (xG)1.1
18Shots8
5Shots on target2
13Shots inside box5
4Big chances1
4Corners4
1Saves4
8Fouls13
1Offsides5
2Yellow cards2
We predicted
2–1
Ajax Amsterdam to win · 9% for this exact score
Expected goals
2.2v1.3
3.6 in total
Both teams score
65%
Yes
3+ goals
69%
Likely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

Ajax AmsterdamAjax AmsterdamNEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen
2.2Goals1.3
21.3Shots12.1
11.3On target3.8
10.1Corners4.5
Ajax AmsterdamAjax AmsterdamNEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen
1.3Goals0.5
9.9Shots5.5
5.5On target1.8
4.8Corners2.1
Ajax AmsterdamAjax AmsterdamNEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen
0.9Goals0.8
11.4Shots6.6
5.8On target2.1
5.4Corners2.4

What we said the chances were

Ajax Amsterdam to score89%
2 or more goals87%
Goal before half-time84%
NEC Nijmegen to score73%

First half — what we expected

Ajax Amsterdam
74%
to score before half-time
NEC Nijmegen
41%
to score before half-time

First half — what we expected

How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.

Ajax AmsterdamAjax AmsterdamNEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen
61%9+ shots15%
41%11+ shots<10%
61%5+ shots on target<10%
32%7+ shots on target<10%
65%4+ corners18%
35%6+ corners<10%

League position

NEC Nijmegen in their league tableLower half

Head to head

Feb 2026Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen
Dec 2025NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Ajax
May 2025Ajax 0–3 NEC Nijmegen
Dec 2024NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Ajax
Feb 2024Ajax 2–2 NEC Nijmegen
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

Eredivisie table →
All fixtures & results →Ajax Amsterdam form →NEC Nijmegen form →

Common questions

Who won Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?

Ajax Amsterdam and NEC Nijmegen drew 1–1. Ajax Amsterdam had 18 shots (5 on target) to NEC Nijmegen's 8 (2), with 61% of the ball against 39%. Expected goals finished 1.8 to 1.1.

What was the final score in Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?

Ajax Amsterdam 1–1 NEC Nijmegen, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with Ajax Amsterdam 57%, the draw 21% and NEC Nijmegen 22%.

What were the stats in Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?

Full-time: Possession 61%–39%, Expected goals (xG) 1.8–1.1, Shots 18–8, Shots on target 5–2, Shots inside box 13–5, Big chances 4–1, Corners 4–4, Saves 1–4, Fouls 8–13, Offsides 1–5, Yellow cards 2–2.

Did both teams score in Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?

Yes — both Ajax Amsterdam and NEC Nijmegen scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 65% before kickoff.