What we expect
In plain English
Ajax Amsterdam should get at least a draw here. They have won four of their last six, and the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than NEC Nijmegen. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Ajax Amsterdam or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Bawler's model rates this match: Ajax Amsterdam are favoured (58% win probability vs 21% for NEC Nijmegen, 21% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Ajax Amsterdam 2-1 NEC Nijmegen (9.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.56.
How does Bawler predict Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Ajax Amsterdam 58%, the draw 21% and NEC Nijmegen 21%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
BTTS: Yes (65% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.24 and away expected goals 1.32.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.56. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).