FT · Europe: Conference League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Hajduk Split 2–1 Ajax AmsterdamMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Hajduk Split or draw at 71%. Bawler had Hajduk Split at 48%, the draw at 23% and Ajax Amsterdam at 29%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Hajduk Split win
48%
Result
Draw
23%
Ajax Amsterdam win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.5
Total 3.5
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Landed
Medium confidence
Hajduk Split or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 32%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.