FT · Europe: Conference League · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Ajax Amsterdam 2–0 AtalantaMatch recap · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Ajax Amsterdam win
42%
Result
Draw
25%
Atalanta win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.