SC Cambuur 3–0 NEC NijmegenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026

3–0

SC Cambuur win

NEC Nijmegen

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had SC Cambuur at 15%, draw at 19%, NEC Nijmegen at 66%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-0. The model's headline call was NEC Nijmegen to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Cambuur win

15%

Actual ✓

Draw

19%

Nijmegen win

66%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.14 – 2.49

Total 3.63

Actual

3 – 0

Total 3 (-0.6 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Away Win

Pre-match: 66%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"NEC Nijmegen's away win is the high-confidence forecast, backed by a commanding 1.34 xG advantage and 66% win probability against a Cambuur side managing just 1.14 expected goals."

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