FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 18 October 2026
FC Groningen 2–5 Ajax AmsterdamMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Ajax Amsterdam or draw at 67%. Bawler had FC Groningen at 33%, the draw at 24% and Ajax Amsterdam at 43%. The match finished 2–5.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Groningen win
33%
Draw
24%
Ajax Amsterdam win
43%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.8
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 5
Total 7 (+3.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 3.0
From the match itself
The match produced 3.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.