Bawler / USA: MLS / Orlando City
Team profile · USA: MLS

Orlando City Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
12
11 settled
Goals for
1.29
Expected, per match
Goals against
2.23
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
73%
8/11 calls

Orlando City prediction: for Orlando City's next match — Orlando City vs Cincinnati on Saturday 15 Aug, 23:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Orlando City win looks most likely (39%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Orlando City are vulnerable at the back, conceding 2.23 expected goals a game against a MLS average of 1.45. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 1.64 a game against 1.29 expected. Next up is FC Cincinnati, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 39%.

Next match

Home vs Cincinnati · Saturday 15 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Win
39%
Orlando City
Draw
26%
Loss
35%
Cincinnati
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 85%
Full match preview

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
4W 1D 6L
Real goals
1.6 – 2.7
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Orlando City compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.29
Below average
Goals against
2.23
Leakier than most
Scored1.29
Conceded2.23

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.29 xG per match · -0.18 above the USA: MLS average of 1.48.
Leaky defensively
Conceding 2.23 xG per match · +0.78 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 75% of the time on Orlando City fixtures (3/4).

📊 Orlando City in numbers

48 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.8
Goals · per game
let in 1.8
🏠 1.9✈️ 1.6
4.6
Corners · per game
give up 5.3
🏠 4.6✈️ 4.5
15.2
Shots · per game
faced 15.0
🏠 15.4✈️ 15.0
5.5
On target · per game
faced 5.5
🏠 5.4✈️ 5.6
🗓️ Last 6 games
09 Aug
1-2
vs Club Leon
🚩 7-5
06 Aug
2-1
@ Monterrey
🚩 5-2
01 Aug
2-3
@ New York Red Bulls
🚩 4-5
25 Jul
1-0
vs Nashville
🚩 -
23 Jul
4-0
@ San Jose Earthquakes
🚩 -
23 May
2-6
@ Cincinnati
🚩 9-6

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Orlando City matches
73%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 11

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Orlando City fixture, it is right 8 out of 11 (73%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Orlando City by market
Goals (Over/Under)71%5/7
Result75%3/4

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Orlando City fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Orlando City matches.

Recent matches (last 10)

Transfer activity

INAntoine GriezmannSTfrom Atletico MadridUndisclosed
INDaryl DikeSTfrom Free agentFree transfer
INGriffin DorseyRBfrom Houston Dynamo FC€500k
OUTDuncan McGuireSTto Houston Dynamo FC€1.1m
OUTDagur ThórhallssonRBto CF Montreal€430k
OUTThomas WilliamsCBto Nashville SCFree transfer
OUTYutaro TsukadaLWto Rhode IslandLoan
OUTTori RiyonRBto Miami FCFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Orlando City prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly