FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 26 July 2026
Orlando City SC 1–0 Nashville SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Orlando City SC at 32%, draw at 30%, Nashville SC at 39%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was Nashville SC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
32%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
SC win
39%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.44 – 1.59
Total 3.03
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals at 81% probability is the play—both sides project 3.03 combined xG with Nashville creator Hany Mukhtar driving 26% of his team's chances."