FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 23 July 2026
San Jose Earthquakes 0–4 Orlando City SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 23 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had San Jose Earthquakes at 62%, draw at 22%, Orlando City SC at 16%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-4. The model's headline call was San Jose Earthquakes to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Earthquakes win
62%
Draw
22%
SC win
16%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.43 – 1.22
Total 3.64
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries 85% probability because San Jose's 2.43 xG towers 1.21 above Orlando's 1.22, forcing a high-volume attacking script."