Match prediction·USA: MLS·Saturday 15 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
38.7% home26.2% draw35.1% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Orlando City SCstepFC Cincinnati
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Orlando City average 4.6 corners per game at home this season (21 competitive matches). Cincinnati average 3.8 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
85%
Orlando City SC or draw
52%
Not both teams to score
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Orlando City vs Cincinnati — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 23 May 2026, Orlando City have won 0, Cincinnati have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
23 May 2026Cincinnati 62 Orlando CityUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: Orlando City 39% · draw 26% · Cincinnati 35%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.