Bawler / USA: MLS / Minnesota United
Team profile · USA: MLS

Minnesota United Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
11
10 settled
Goals for
1.43
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.46
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
40%
4/10 calls

Minnesota United prediction: for Minnesota United's next match — Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United on Sunday 16 Aug, 01:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Real Salt Lake are favoured (44%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Minnesota United sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.43 expected goals a game and conceding 1.46. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 1.10 goals a game against 1.43 expected. They have struggled lately, losing 2 of their last 5. Next up is a trip to Real Salt Lake, where the model has them as underdogs at 26%.

Next match

Away vs Real Salt Lake · Sunday 16 Aug, 01:30 UTC

Win
26%
This team
Draw
30%
Loss
44%
Opponent
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 85%
Full match preview

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
2W 5D 3L
Real goals
1.1 – 1.2
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Minnesota United compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.43
Below average
Goals against
1.46
Leakier than most
Scored1.43
Conceded1.46

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Tough market: Result
Minnesota United matches give the model a harder read here — 1/4 (25%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.

📊 Minnesota United in numbers

51 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.5
Goals · per game
let in 1.2
🏠 1.5✈️ 1.5
4.7
Corners · per game
give up 5.4
🏠 5.2✈️ 4.2
11.8
Shots · per game
faced 13.4
🏠 12.7✈️ 10.7
4.6
On target · per game
faced 4.5
🏠 4.9✈️ 4.2
🗓️ Last 6 games
12 Aug
3-1
vs Atlante
🚩 3-5
08 Aug
0-1
@ Tigres UANL
🚩 7-11
05 Aug
1-2
vs Juarez
🚩 9-2
02 Aug
1-1
vs San Diego
🚩 8-4
26 Jul
0-0
vs Vancouver Whitecaps
🚩 5-2
23 Jul
1-2
@ Sporting Kansas City
🚩 -

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Minnesota United matches
40%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 10

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Minnesota United fixture, it is right 4 out of 10 (40%). This sits below the cross-league baseline — the model finds this team harder to read than most. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Minnesota United by market
Goals (Over/Under)50%3/6
Result25%1/4

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Minnesota United fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Minnesota United matches.

Recent matches (last 10)

Transfer activity

INPeter StroudDMfrom Red Bull New York€403k
INDrake CallenderGKfrom Charlotte FC€380k
INTomás ChancalayLWfrom New England Revolution€85k
OUTKayne RizvanovichGKto Brooklyn FCLoan
OUTRobin LodCMto Chicago Fire FCFree transfer
OUTMatús KmetRWto Banik OstravaUndisclosed
OUTWessel SpeelGKto Almere City FCLoan
OUTKenyel MichelLWto LD AlajuelenseLoan
OUTMomoh KamaraCMto ElfsborgLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Minnesota United prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly