FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 26 July 2026
Minnesota United FC 0–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Minnesota United FC at 29%, draw at 30%, Vancouver Whitecaps at 41%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Vancouver Whitecaps to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
29%
Draw
30%
Actual ✓
Whitecaps win
41%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.32 – 1.60
Total 2.93
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 77% with both sides generating 2.93 combined xG, anchored by Vancouver's Brian White (24% of team xG) facing Minnesota's attacking threat at home."