FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 23 July 2026
Sporting Kansas City 2–1 Minnesota United FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 23 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Sporting Kansas City at 28%, draw at 30%, Minnesota United FC at 43%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-1. The model's headline call was Minnesota United FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
28%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
FC win
43%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.32 – 1.66
Total 2.98
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals at 80% confidence is the play—Minnesota's expected-goal edge of 0.34 combined with a combined xG total of 2.98 signals a high-volume attacking setup that favors goals."