Match prediction·USA: MLS·Sunday 16 Aug, 01:30 UTC

Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United FC

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
43.9% home29.7% draw26.4% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Real Salt LakestepMinnesota United FC
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Real Salt Lake average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). Minnesota United average 4.2 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
85%
Over 3.5 goals
27%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 23 May 2026, Real Salt Lake have won 0, Minnesota United have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
23 May 2026Minnesota United 11 Real Salt LakeUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: Real Salt Lake 44% · draw 30% · Minnesota United 26%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.