How it finished
Arouca beat Estrela 1–0. Arouca had 7 shots (3 on target) to Estrela's 11 (2), with 37% of the ball against 63%. On expected goals it was 0.7 to 1.5, so Estrela created the better chances and still lost the game.
What we expected from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
What we said the chances were
First half — what we expected
First half — what we expected
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
League position
Head to head
Around this fixture
Liga Portugal table →Common questions
Who won Arouca vs Estrela?
Arouca beat Estrela 1–0. Arouca had 7 shots (3 on target) to Estrela's 11 (2), with 37% of the ball against 63%. On expected goals it was 0.7 to 1.5, so Estrela created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Estrela?
Arouca 1–0 Estrela, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Arouca 47%, the draw 25% and Estrela 27%.
What were the stats in Arouca vs Estrela?
Full-time: Possession 37%–63%, Expected goals (xG) 0.7–1.5, Shots 7–11, Shots on target 3–2, Shots inside box 5–6, Big chances 3–1, Corners 5–6, Saves 2–2, Fouls 10–7, Offsides 2–3, Yellow cards 5–2.
Did both teams score in Arouca vs Estrela?
No. It finished 1–0, so Estrela failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.