How it finished
Stoke City beat Watford 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Watford at 48% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Stoke City 25%. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 3. Watford had 6 shots (2 on target) to Stoke City's 18 (6), with 41% of the ball against 59%. Expected goals finished 0.4 to 1.4.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Watford vs Stoke City?
Stoke City beat Watford 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Watford at 48% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Stoke City 25%. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 3. Watford had 6 shots (2 on target) to Stoke City's 18 (6), with 41% of the ball against 59%. Expected goals finished 0.4 to 1.4.
What was the final score in Watford vs Stoke City?
Watford 1–2 Stoke City, played on 12 Sept 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Watford 48%, the draw 27% and Stoke City 25%.
What were the stats in Watford vs Stoke City?
Full-time: Possession 41%–59%, Expected goals (xG) 0.4–1.4, Shots 6–18, Shots on target 2–6, Shots inside box 4–10, Big chances 0–2, Corners 5–8, Saves 4–1, Fouls 14–6, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 2–2.
Did both teams score in Watford vs Stoke City?
Yes — both Watford and Stoke City scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Watford vs Stoke City right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Watford or draw 75%, it finished Stoke City won (25% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished Yes.