Stoke City 4–0 Charlton AthleticMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026

4–0

Stoke City win

Charlton Athletic

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Stoke City at 41%, draw at 29%, Charlton Athletic at 30%. The match ended 4-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Stoke City.

> Pre-match probability vs result

City win

41%

Actual ✓

Draw

29%

Athletic win

30%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.36 – 1.12

Total 2.47

Actual

4 – 0

Total 4 (+1.5 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 71%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 24%

✓ Won

> What we said pre-match

"Charlton's desperation for points in a relegation battle clashes with Stoke's mid-table complacency, but xG favors attacking chess: Over 1.5 Goals projects at 72%."

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