FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Bolton Wanderers 1–2 Stoke CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Bolton Wanderers or draw at 70%. Bawler had Bolton Wanderers at 43%, the draw at 27% and Stoke City at 30%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bolton Wanderers win
43%
Draw
27%
Stoke City win
30%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.0 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Bolton Wanderers or draw
Pre-match: 70%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.