FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Stoke City 2–1 Sheffield UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Stoke City at 34%, draw at 26%, Sheffield United at 40%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-1. The model's headline call was Sheffield United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
34%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
United win
40%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.36 – 1.50
Total 2.87
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 77% confidence because Sheffield United's 1.54 xG combined with Stoke City's 1.28 suggests both sides will create enough chances to breach the goal line."