FT · England: Championship · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Cardiff City 1–1 Stoke CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Cardiff City at 43%, draw at 27%, Stoke City at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Cardiff City to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
43%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
City win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.48 – 1.20
Total 2.69
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Cardiff's 10-point lead with four games remaining leaves them defending the title while Stoke sit with no live stakes, and the model's 71% forecast for Cardiff not to lose aligns with their 0.36 xG advantage."