Burnley beat Watford 4–0. Watford had 14 shots (6 on target) to Burnley's 17 (8), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 1.8.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Burnley beat Watford 4–0. Watford had 14 shots (6 on target) to Burnley's 17 (8), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 1.8.
Watford 0–4 Burnley, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Watford 36%, the draw 27% and Burnley 37%.
Full-time: Possession 52%–48%, Expected goals (xG) 0.6–1.8, Shots 14–17, Shots on target 6–8, Shots inside box 7–12, Big chances 1–3, Corners 6–2, Saves 4–6, Fouls 8–10, Offsides 2–5.
No. It finished 0–4, so Watford failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.