Watford vs Burnley prediction — Championship · Sat 10 Oct · 15:00 UK

Championship · Sat 10 Oct · 15:00 UK
36Watford win27Draw37Burnley win
Full time
0–4

How it finished

Burnley beat Watford 4–0. Watford had 14 shots (6 on target) to Burnley's 17 (8), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 1.8.

WatfordFull-time statsBurnley
52%Possession48%
0.6Expected goals (xG)1.8
14Shots17
6Shots on target8
7Shots inside box12
1Big chances3
6Corners2
4Saves6
8Fouls10
2Offsides5
We predicted
0–1
Likeliest score if Burnley win (9%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (13%)
Expected goals
1.3v1.4
2.7 in total
Both teams score
55%
Leans yes
3+ goals
51%
Leans likely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

WatfordWatfordBurnleyBurnley
1.3Goals1.4
20.2Shots14.3
4.4On target4.6
3.8Corners5.4
WatfordWatfordBurnleyBurnley
0.7Goals0.6
9.1Shots6.6
1.8On target1.9
1.8Corners2.5
WatfordWatfordBurnleyBurnley
0.7Goals0.7
11.1Shots7.7
2.6On target2.8
2.0Corners2.8

What we said the chances were

2 or more goals75%
Burnley to score75%
Watford to score74%
Goal before half-time73%
3 goals or fewer71%

First half — what we expected

Watford
49%
to score before half-time
Burnley
47%
to score before half-time

First half — what we expected

How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.

WatfordWatfordBurnleyBurnley
63%8+ shots35%
42%10+ shots17%
79%1+ shots on target81%
27%3+ shots on target29%
50%2+ corners66%
14%4+ corners26%

League position

Burnley in their league tableBottom quarter

Head to head

Apr 2025Watford 1–2 Burnley
Dec 2024Burnley 2–1 Watford
Feb 2023Burnley 1–1 Watford
Aug 2022Watford 1–0 Burnley
Apr 2022Watford 1–2 Burnley
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

Championship table →
All fixtures & results →Watford form →Burnley form →

Common questions

Who won Watford vs Burnley?

Burnley beat Watford 4–0. Watford had 14 shots (6 on target) to Burnley's 17 (8), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 1.8.

What was the final score in Watford vs Burnley?

Watford 0–4 Burnley, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Watford 36%, the draw 27% and Burnley 37%.

What were the stats in Watford vs Burnley?

Full-time: Possession 52%–48%, Expected goals (xG) 0.6–1.8, Shots 14–17, Shots on target 6–8, Shots inside box 7–12, Big chances 1–3, Corners 6–2, Saves 4–6, Fouls 8–10, Offsides 2–5.

Did both teams score in Watford vs Burnley?

No. It finished 0–4, so Watford failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.