What we expect
In plain English
Burnley are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won three of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Burnley or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Watford vs Burnley?
Bawler's model rates this match: Burnley are favoured (37% win probability vs 36% for Watford, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Watford vs Burnley?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Watford 1-1 Burnley (12.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.73.
How does Bawler predict Watford vs Burnley?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Watford 36%, the draw 27% and Burnley 37%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Watford vs Burnley?
BTTS: Yes (55% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.35 and away expected goals 1.37.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Watford vs Burnley?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.73. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).