FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Watford 2–0 Charlton AthleticMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Watford or draw at 71%. Bawler had Watford at 43%, the draw at 28% and Charlton Athletic at 29%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Watford win
43%
Result
Draw
28%
Charlton Athletic win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.1
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.