FT · England: Championship · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Cardiff City 5–1 WatfordMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Cardiff City or draw at 72%. Bawler had Cardiff City at 47%, the draw at 25% and Watford at 28%. The match finished 5–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Cardiff City win
47%
Result
Draw
25%
Watford win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+3.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.7 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 3.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Cardiff City or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.