TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart prediction — Bundesliga · Sat 12 Sept · 14:30 UK

Bundesliga · Sat 12 Sept · 14:30 UK
TSG Hoffenheim 41Draw 24VfB Stuttgart 34
The call
66%
TSG Hoffenheim or draw
3.3
Goals expected
13d 23hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Over 1.5 goals84%
TSG Hoffenheim to score82%
VfB Stuttgart to score79%
Over 2.5 goals63%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)W W D W L W
Expected goals gap (xG)+0.2 / match
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

May 2026Hoffenheim 3–3 VfB Stuttgart
Dec 2025VfB Stuttgart 0–0 Hoffenheim
Feb 2025Hoffenheim 1–1 VfB Stuttgart
Oct 2024VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Hoffenheim
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Common questions

Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?

Bawler's model rates this match: TSG Hoffenheim are favoured (41% win probability vs 34% for VfB Stuttgart, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is TSG Hoffenheim 1-1 VfB Stuttgart (10.7% probability). Expected total goals: 3.27.

How does Bawler predict TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives TSG Hoffenheim 41%, the draw 24% and VfB Stuttgart 34%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?

BTTS: Yes (65% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.72 and away expected goals 1.55.

Over or under 2.5 goals in TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.27. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Bundesliga table →
VfB Stuttgart
Before this
28 AugABayern Munich15 L
All fixtures & results →TSG Hoffenheim form →VfB Stuttgart form →