FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 29 August 2026
FC Cologne 3–2 TSG HoffenheimMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Cologne at 45%, draw at 25%, TSG Hoffenheim at 31%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward FC Cologne.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Cologne win
45%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Hoffenheim win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.74 – 1.42
Total 3.16
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Hoffenheim defends a European spot with nothing to gain from an away trip to mid-table Cologne, yet xG suggests an even contest (1.74 vs 1.46), making Over 1.5 Goals the high-confidence call at 83%."