FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 10 October 2026
TSG Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburg SVMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was TSG Hoffenheim to win at 67%. Bawler had TSG Hoffenheim at 67%, the draw at 18% and Hamburg SV at 15%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
TSG Hoffenheim win
67%
Draw
18%
Hamburg SV win
15%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.6 – 1.2
Total 3.7
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
TSG Hoffenheim to win
Pre-match: 67%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.