VfB Stuttgart 3–1 Viking FKMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 09 September 2026

3–1

VfB Stuttgart win

Viking FK

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had VfB Stuttgart at 57%, draw at 23%, Viking FK at 20%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward VfB Stuttgart.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Stuttgart win

57%

Actual ✓

Draw

23%

FK win

20%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

2.03 – 1.13

Total 3.16

Actual

3 – 1

Total 4 (+0.8 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 82%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 23%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 82%, backed by Stuttgart's 0.89 xG advantage and their striker Deniz Undav accounting for over a quarter of the team's attacking threat."

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