FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
VfB Stuttgart 0–1 Borussia DortmundMatch recap · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
VfB Stuttgart win
41%
Draw
24%
Borussia Dortmund win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.6
Total 3.3
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.