FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
VfB Stuttgart 0–1 Borussia DortmundMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had VfB Stuttgart at 41%, draw at 24%, Borussia Dortmund at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was VfB Stuttgart to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Stuttgart win
41%
Draw
24%
Dortmund win
35%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.72 – 1.58
Total 3.29
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.3 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 83% because Stuttgart's 1.67 xG and Dortmund's 1.51 xG combine for 3.18 total, despite their narrow win-probability gap suggesting a competitive fixture."