FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
TSG Hoffenheim 2–1 VfB StuttgartMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had TSG Hoffenheim at 41%, draw at 24%, VfB Stuttgart at 34%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward TSG Hoffenheim.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Hoffenheim win
41%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Stuttgart win
34%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.72 – 1.55
Total 3.27
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 84% because both sides generate comparable attacking threat—Hoffenheim's 1.73 xG and Stuttgart's 1.55 xG total 3.28, creating a high-volume scoring environment."