VfB Stuttgart 4–1 FC CologneMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 04 September 2026

4–1

VfB Stuttgart win

FC Cologne

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had VfB Stuttgart at 54%, draw at 23%, FC Cologne at 24%. The match ended 4-1 — confirming the model's lean toward VfB Stuttgart.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Stuttgart win

54%

Actual ✓

Draw

23%

Cologne win

24%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

2.02 – 1.29

Total 3.30

Actual

4 – 1

Total 5 (+1.7 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 84%

✓ Won

Medium confidence

Home Win

Pre-match: 54%

✓ Won

> What we said pre-match

"Stuttgart's Champions League-qualification fight against a side with nothing left to play for sets up an 85% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals, with the hosts' 2.08 xG significantly outweighing Cologne's 1.29."

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