FT · GERMANY: Bundesliga · Friday, 28 August 2026
Bayern Munich 5–1 VfB StuttgartMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 28 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Bayern Munich at 69%, draw at 17%, VfB Stuttgart at 14%. The match ended 5-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Bayern Munich.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Munich win
69%
Actual ✓
Draw
17%
Stuttgart win
14%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.80 – 1.25
Total 4.05
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+1.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 69%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost