FT · GERMANY: Bundesliga · Friday, 28 August 2026
Bayern Munich 5–1 VfB StuttgartMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 28 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bayern Munich to win at 69%. Bawler had Bayern Munich at 69%, the draw at 17% and VfB Stuttgart at 14%. The match finished 5–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bayern Munich win
69%
Result
Draw
17%
VfB Stuttgart win
14%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.8 – 1.3
Total 4.1
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.9 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Bayern Munich to win
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.