How it finished
Lille beat Toulouse 1–0. Bawler's model had Lille in front at 37% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.5 goals; only 1 was scored. Toulouse had 24 shots (10 on target) to Lille's 10 (6), with 53% of the ball against 47%. On expected goals it was 3.5 to 1.1, so Toulouse created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 55%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Toulouse vs Lille?
Lille beat Toulouse 1–0. Bawler's model had Lille in front at 37% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.5 goals; only 1 was scored. Toulouse had 24 shots (10 on target) to Lille's 10 (6), with 53% of the ball against 47%. On expected goals it was 3.5 to 1.1, so Toulouse created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Lille?
Toulouse 0–1 Lille, played on 03 Sept 2026 in the France: Ligue 1. Bawler's model had gone into it with Toulouse 35%, the draw 28% and Lille 37%.
What were the stats in Toulouse vs Lille?
Full-time: Possession 53%–47%, Expected goals (xG) 3.5–1.1, Shots 24–10, Shots on target 10–6, Shots inside box 14–6, Big chances 4–1, Corners 6–2, Saves 5–9, Fouls 16–9, Offsides 3–0, Yellow cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in Toulouse vs Lille?
No. It finished 0–1, so Toulouse failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Toulouse vs Lille right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Lille or draw 65%, it finished Lille won (37% called); Total goals — we said 2.5, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Toulouse or draw 63%, it finished Missed.