Toulouse vs Lille prediction — Ligue 1 · Thu 3 Sept · 19:45 UK

Ligue 1 · Thu 3 Sept · 19:45 UK
Toulouse 48Draw 26Lille 25
The call
48%
Toulouse to win
2.7
Goals expected
13d 11hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Toulouse or draw75%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals51%
BTTS53%
Toulouse win to nil27%
Lille or draw52%
Under 3.5 goals72%
Correct score 1–112%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)L L D W W D
Expected goals gap (xG)+0.5 / match
Head-to-head, last 5TOU 1 · D 0 · LIL 4

Head to head

Apr 2026Toulouse 0–4 Lille
Sept 2025Lille 2–1 Toulouse
Apr 2025Toulouse 1–2 Lille
Oct 2024Lille 2–1 Toulouse
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Common questions

Who will win Toulouse vs Lille?

Bawler's model rates this match: Toulouse are favoured (48% win probability vs 25% for Lille, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Toulouse vs Lille?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Toulouse 1-1 Lille (12.6% probability). Expected total goals: 2.70.

How does Bawler predict Toulouse vs Lille?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Toulouse 48%, the draw 26% and Lille 25%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lille?

BTTS: Yes (53% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.60 and away expected goals 1.09.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Toulouse vs Lille?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.70. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Ligue 1 table →
All fixtures & results →Toulouse form →Lille form →