FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Angers 0–2 LilleMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Angers at 23%, draw at 27%, Lille at 51%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Lille.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Angers win
23%
Draw
27%
Lille win
51%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.97 – 1.57
Total 2.55
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won