FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Angers 0–2 LilleMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lille or draw at 77%. Bawler had Angers at 23%, the draw at 27% and Lille at 51%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Angers win
23%
Draw
27%
Lille win
51%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 1.6
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Lille or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.