FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Toulouse 3–2 Le Havre ACMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Toulouse at 54%, draw at 25%, Le Havre AC at 21%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Toulouse.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Toulouse win
54%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
AC win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.74 – 1.01
Total 2.75
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Toulouse's 0.63 expected-goals advantage translates to a 1X forecast at 78%, suggesting the hosts are built to either win or draw rather than lose at home."