FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Lille 2–0 TroyesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Lille at 64%, draw at 22%, Troyes at 15%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Lille.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lille win
64%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
Troyes win
15%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.04 – 0.87
Total 2.91
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 64%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 33%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Lille's home win is the high-confidence call at 64% probability, built on a dominant 1.16 xG advantage and Jonathan David's striker role commanding 28% of team chances."