FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Brest 2–2 ToulouseMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Brest or draw at 66%. Bawler had Brest at 39%, the draw at 27% and Toulouse at 34%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Brest win
39%
Draw
27%
Result
Toulouse win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.3
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 50%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"With both sides free of pressure at mid-table, Brest's 1.40 xG at home edges Toulouse's 1.29 away, fueling a 75% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals despite the narrow margin separating them."