FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Brest 2–2 ToulouseMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Brest at 39%, draw at 27%, Toulouse at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Brest to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Brest win
39%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Toulouse win
34%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.40 – 1.29
Total 2.69
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"With both sides free of pressure at mid-table, Brest's 1.40 xG at home edges Toulouse's 1.29 away, fueling a 75% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals despite the narrow margin separating them."