What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 75%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
In plain English
Stade Rennais are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Stade Rennais or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Stade Rennais vs OFI Crete?
Bawler's model rates this match: Stade Rennais are favoured (46% win probability vs 29% for OFI Crete, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Stade Rennais vs OFI Crete?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Stade Rennais 1-1 OFI Crete (11.2% probability). Expected total goals: 3.11.
How does Bawler predict Stade Rennais vs OFI Crete?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Stade Rennais 46%, the draw 25% and OFI Crete 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Stade Rennais vs OFI Crete?
BTTS: Yes (61% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.75 and away expected goals 1.35.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Stade Rennais vs OFI Crete?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.11. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).