FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
SK Sturm Graz 0–0 Stade RennaisMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had SK Sturm Graz at 26%, draw at 25%, Stade Rennais at 48%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Stade Rennais to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Graz win
26%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Rennais win
48%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.20 – 1.70
Total 2.89
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 33%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 78% confidence as Rennais's 0.54 xG edge and 49% win probability suggest attacking intent will breach Sturm's defense at least twice."