FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Lyon 4–0 Stade RennaisMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Lyon at 51%, draw at 24%, Stade Rennais at 26%. The match ended 4-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Lyon.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lyon win
51%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Rennais win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.90 – 1.30
Total 3.20
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 40%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Lyon's 0.55 expected-goals edge and 50% win probability underpin an 82% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals, as Lacazette's striker role and Rennais's defensive vulnerability suggest a multi-goal affair."