FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 22 October 2026
OFI Crete 0–2 Bayer LeverkusenMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bayer Leverkusen or draw at 71%. Bawler had OFI Crete at 29%, the draw at 26% and Bayer Leverkusen at 45%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
OFI Crete win
29%
Draw
26%
Bayer Leverkusen win
45%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.6
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.2 – 3.1
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Bayer Leverkusen's 0.34 xG advantage and Florian Wirtz's creative dominance power a high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 77%, with the visitors' 1.58 expected goals marking clear attacking intent against a Crete side generating just 1.24."