FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Juventus 2–2 Stade RennaisMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Juventus to win at 62%. Bawler had Juventus at 62%, the draw at 20% and Stade Rennais at 18%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Juventus win
62%
Draw
20%
Result
Stade Rennais win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 1.2
Total 3.5
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.5 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Juventus to win
Pre-match: 62%
Missed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 38%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Juventus Home Win is the high-confidence forecast, backed by a commanding 1.04 xG advantage and Vlahović's 30% of team shot quality in a 60% win probability matchup."