FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Stade Rennais 4–1 AJ AuxerreMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Stade Rennais or draw at 79%. Bawler had Stade Rennais at 56%, the draw at 23% and AJ Auxerre at 21%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Stade Rennais win
56%
Result
Draw
23%
AJ Auxerre win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.2
Total 3.1
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.