FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 25 October 2026
Stade Rennais 3–0 StrasbourgMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 25 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Stade Rennais or draw at 70%. Bawler had Stade Rennais at 47%, the draw at 23% and Strasbourg at 30%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Stade Rennais win
47%
Result
Draw
23%
Strasbourg win
30%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.5
Total 3.5
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.5 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Landed
Medium confidence
Stade Rennais or draw
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 32%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 86% confidence because Rennais's 1.97 xG and Strasbourg's 1.54 xG combine for an attacking blueprint that favors a multi-goal contest."