FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Paris FC 4–3 Stade RennaisMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Paris FC or draw at 68%. Bawler had Paris FC at 44%, the draw at 25% and Stade Rennais at 32%. The match finished 4–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Paris FC win
44%
Result
Draw
25%
Stade Rennais win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.5
Total 3.2
Actual
4 – 3
Total 7 (+3.8 against our forecast)
The match produced 3.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.